Now is the Time to Buy

Conditions in the San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton real estate housing markets may not get any more favorable for buyers than they are right now.

We’re at the year-end low point for the housing market in San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton CA.

For the past month we have been encouraging buyers to make their move as we are in a historically favorable situation for buyers. Here are some of our thoughts for buyers:

First-Time Buyers

• Owning a home is a great investment as real estate appreciates in the long run
• Paying rent builds no equity for you
• Interest on your mortgage and mortgage insurance are tax deductible
• The equity in a home can be leveraged

When shopping for a house, first-time buyers especially need to consider additional costs in excess of the straight mortgage payment – insurance, taxes, association dues, and taxes.

The question for buyers sitting on the fence right now is – What are you waiting for?

Interest rates remain stable. In fact, as most homeowners over the age of 50 know, the current rates are darn attractive when compared to the 7.5 to 9.5 rates they’ve seen most of their lives.

Sellers are motivated – on price, on repairs, on helping the deal get done.

NOW is the time to buy. The market forecast is “flat,” meaning that conditions are beginning to stabilize. When the market is stable, the motivation of the seller is going to be based solely on the urgency of their need to move.

Waiting for More? More of What? When the market stabilizes, as it is beginning to do, sellers will feel no more pressure to reduce price based on the “correction” the market is stabilizing from. Sellers are going to lose their eagerness and willingness to cover some of the repairs and closing costs they are now willing to cover.

In general, buyers, wanting to take advantage of the current conditions in the San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton real estate markets, need to be thinking of getting under contract within the next 30 days.

MLS Stats for Pleasanton, Dublin, Pleasanton

The weekly MLS figures for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton CA are in (blue=active listings, green=pending sales, purple=closed sales).

What we see is what we expect. The real estate market for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton is hitting its year-end bottom.

You notice in Dublin pending sales remain stable while they have dipped in Pleasanton and San Ramon. But, in San Ramon, closed sales actually jumped up a bit.

We keep an eye on MLS listings as they expire. In the last couple of days expired listings have fallen off indicating to us that most of the downward movement of Active Listings is complete. We expect to see a rather steep increase by the second week in January as sellers return to the market. 

Our opinion – barring unforeseen circumstances, housing prices in the area are stabilizing and will remain mostly flat for the first half of the year. Sellers entering the market may still have to adjust. Buyers are going to lose the leverage they enjoyed as the market trended down. It will be back to horse trading as usual.

Relevant news items from the end of the week: 

• 30-year fixed-rate loans still remained slightly below where they were a year ago, according to a report today from Freddie Mac.
• "Mortgage rates edged up over the week following news of a jump in consumer spending in November,'' Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a statement. "Financial markets were concerned that stronger spending could keep inflation elevated. These worries were further compounded by the releases of new and existing home sales for the same month, which both exceeded market forecasts and caused Treasury bond yields to continue to rise.''
• The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes rose 0.6 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million units. That followed a 0.5 percent sales increase in October and marked the first back-to-back sales gains since the spring of 2005.
• Nearly 1 million California homeowners and renters can look forward to a significant reduction in their home and renter insurance rates after a decision by Farmers Insurance Group to slash premium fees in 2007.
• The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of an existing home fell 3.5% in October from a year earlier, the largest decline since the group began collecting these data in the late 1960s. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now stands at 6.16%, the lowest level since October 2005, according to HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.J.
• First-time buyers are particularly sensitive to rising housing costs, in part because they don't have equity from an existing home they can tap as prices shoot higher. And lower incomes provide less of a cushion when monthly payments climb. In a sign of just how hard it is for first-time buyers to come up with the cash needed to buy a home, 45% of first-time buyers bought their home with no money down, according to the recent National Association of Realtors survey, up from 43% a year earlier.

The Harper Team monitors over 50 Real Estate and News Feeds daily to bring you information pertinent to the San Ramon Valley & TriValley real estate market including the communities of Danville, San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton. We welcome suggestions. 

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Yesterday, my brother and I butted chests again for a few seconds. He was leaving for a visit with folks and had a few orders for me. Well, they sounded like orders to me. As the older brother, I don't like orders – received too many of them growing up from "the colonel (dad)." It took about 15 seconds for me to say "whoa." It's amazing how fast the past can hijack your experience. It took another twenty seconds for me to get my head out of my past so I could hear what he was really saying. 

He has a sense of urgency for staying on top of a few things as we are making some major transitions in our marketing efforts and there are always client and transaction details. Throw all this into the last minute rush to get out the door and into rush hour traffic – well there you go – flash from the past.

54 minutes – San Ramon, California to San Francisco airport – Monday morning before Thanksgiving – not bad. Just enough time to square things between us, get the details, and leave us laughing. I really like that brother of mine. 

My brother, Craig (on the left), is quite a success story. In the late 70's he created a direct marketing department for a non-profit company in Menlo Park, CA. That resulted in him being hired by some early computer era guys to take over marketing efforts for three trade magazines. That led to him starting his own software company which he sold and then on to a series of VP Marketing and Director of Product Development for hi-tech startups. All of this had him making numerous trips to Asia and Europe.

Then he decided he should have a college education, so he got his business degree through the University of Phoenix. At that point he left the corporate world and started two direct marketing companies. Well, the story goes on… but the point is – the boy is driven, he is talented and he has so much business savvy I'm wondering if I look like the milkman.

So, here's what Craig brings to the team:

• Over 20 years of marketing experience
• Hi-tech oriented brain matter
• Professional business skills
• Strong negotiating skills
• Project management skills
• Black-belt in Karate (as needed)
• Love of golf (did I mention that he plays guitar, flute, clarinet, saxophone and piano?)
• A dedication to fairness and win-win for everyone  

And me – I'm just a poor retired guy trying to make ends meet.

But I did have an Internet marketing and promotion company from about 1996 to 2001. I was surfing the net back when a gopher was more than a yard pest. So, I am involved in creating the eight websites that will support our team's efforts. It's not much, but hey, I am retired.  

NEED to buy or sell San Ramon Valley real estate – call The Harper Team at Keller Williams in Danville, California. We guarantee our services in writing.

Anatomy of a Team – Part 1 

In my short time in real estate, I have met agents who are doing fifty to one hundred transactions a year solo. They do, of course, rely on an assistant or other staff in the brokerage. But the majority of the Realtor work is being done by them. I applaud them, but I'm not looking to go that route. 

In fact, I wasn't even thinking of getting into real estate a year ago. I was into my 32nd year at Delta Airlines and things in the airline industry were deteriorating faster than a Country/Western-song relationship. So,I bailed out of that and took my brother, Craig, up on his offer to move to San Ramon, California and join him and his wife, Tracey, in their real estate business – The Harper Team at Keller Williams in Danville, CA.

It turns out that we have different, yet at times, overlapping skills and talents that create a great foundation for teamwork. I read a lot in blogs and books that the move toward teams is the future of a successful real estate business. I'm sure there will always be the Lone Rangers, but it seems to me if you want a life beyond the cell phone, a team makes more sense. 

Of course, working closely with people has it's rewards and challenges and there are those times when one needs to seek guidance outside the conventions of your local office water-cooler-therapy group. I found The Five Dysfunctions of a Team to be a worthwhile read. When you throw a few family dynamics into the mix, things can get very interesting at times. Fortunately, as the older brother,I learned to be respectful of a younger brother who taught karate!

Let me introduce you to each of us and give you a little background. I do this because we want your referral business. I think there is great potential in networking and we want to make it clear that we are looking for other like-minded business people to work with.

Tracey Harper, the good looking one in the middle, puts the REAL in Realtor. Tracey grew up in the area, so she brings the invaluable asset of intimate knowledge of the local area to the team. Tracey's business background is as a bookkeeper. That's another big plus.

She worked for Standard Pacific Homes, a big builder out here in the San Ramon Valley. Tracey moved up to assistant comptroller and decided it was time for a change. She went into sales and closed escrow on over 300 homes for Standard Pacific before deciding to move on.

To me, Tracey is a little weird – she loves contracts! Tell me that isn't an asset in this business. I've never seen anyone get excited about going to a seminar on lender fraud.

Tracey's biggest asset to the team is her – her personalness, her soul. She is just a nice, friendly, engaging person which makes it easy for my brother and me because all we have to concentrate on is getting clients in front of Tracey. It takes about ten minutes for a client to start offering Tracey all future business from their young children.

In the next segment we will discuss what sibling rivalry brings to a team.

I had a meeting today with my unofficial mentor, Jim Walberg. Jim is well known in the Danville and San Ramon areas. I think he found gold around here back in 1849. Jim is one of those great agents who has seen it all in California real estate and loves to share his knowledge with others.

In most of our team meetings for the Danville office, Jim always has something to offer. Much of his advice is to help others avoid the pitfalls and setbacks he suffered through in the "good old days."  

My hour with Jim turned into 3 and a half hours and went something like this:

Jim to me: What do you think of all this blogging and Internet technology?

Well, we started in and before you know it we were in with the white board and laying out plans for global domination. Jim, and his wife, Ann Marie, sell about $30 million in East Bay real estate – maybe more. I don't know how much they sell in the Virgin Islands – they have an office down there as well.  90% of their business comes from referrals, but Jim wants to stay in the game and keep up with what's happening.

We talked about it all: SEO, blogs, podcasts, vlogs, multiple sites, social networking…

Jim also shared about the 3 mega deals he fell into through three referrals from friends that may make him more money than the 20 to 30 deals he will complete this year in the San Ramon Valley. Every time he mentioned something, I had a few exciting thoughts on how we could use technology. Every time I mentioned something to him, he had a few things in the works that could be really exciting.

Before we knew it, it was dark; the staff was gone; and we still had most of Asia, Africa, and Russia to go.

Did I mention that Jim is a great guy – he'll share everything with you because he's seen it all and he's not afraid of  loss. He's lost it all before – a couple of times – and he's still going strong. I wish I could be half the agent he is when I'm his age, but we're about the same age. 

They say that relationships are the key to success in real estate. I think I heard something about blogs helping to build relationships. Old dogs talking is one relationship to court.