Another beautiful Friday, another high impact Valley Marketing Association meeting in Pleasanton at Tommy T's. Roy and Stephen had the stereo pumping up the volume again today. 

Roy nabbed me at the last minute to sit on a panel to discuss agent etiquette. It seems the number of complaints and or comments we are hearing from around the country about real estate agents' lack of courtesy and etiquette is on the rise. Roy scheduled this panel to bring more awareness to the situation locally as the professionals represented by this association want to raise the bar way above the national or state level.

Just yesterday, I wrote a post over on my Active Rain blog addressing this very thing and the last issue of the Contra Costa Association of Realtors newsletter had a front page article on the topic as well. I slipped Roy $10 for putting me on the panel to encourage him to put me in similar surroundings more often. The ten spot is going into the charity fund.

Today's new listings include:

• 7448 Quartz Circle, Dublin
• 5836 Turnberry Drive, Dublin
• 19873 John Drive, Castro Valley
• 3240-122 Maguire Way, Dublin
• 7036 York Drive, Dublin
• 8133 Arroyo Drive #1, Pleasanton
• 4168 Wells Street, Pleasanton
• 4330 First Street, Pleasanton

 I think everyone present would agree that the highlight of the meetig was Dick Vesperman's listing presentation. Dick brought in a drummer and a pianist and did a great take-off on New York, New York to present his York Drive listing. If real estate doesn't work out for Dick, there is always Las Vegas.

This afternoon was one of those days that I wanted to get out of the office, get some lunch, sit in the sun, relax at Peet's while catching up on some reading, and then go to two events I had scheduled. I should have stayed at Peet's. Here's the scoop:

I leave the office about 1:30 famished and head over to The Shops at Bishop Ranch where I grab lunch at Whole Foods and sit out by the fountain in the sun to eat. Ahhhh…

I mosey over to Borders Books to see if there are any new releases I might enjoy - zip. So, I walk over to Peet's for a cup of green tea. I park myself in the corner near an electrical outlet for my laptop and though Peet's isn't smart enough to figure out that having WiFi available at a coffee shop across from the largest business park in the TriValley area is good business, I fire it up to write up a couple of blog posts in Word.

About half an hour into my reading and writing, a gent sits down next to me and says, I'm not interested in real estate but can I ask you a question? (He's respnding to the big sign on the lid of my laptop. You can see it here.) Sure, I say.

William Friend is the CEO of Wait-on-Me a new business venture that sounds pretty interesting. We chat a bit and swap business cards. Bill says he was the fifth employee hired at Oracle, so I figure he's got to have some real estate he needs to sell or buy. He does! In Tahoe. It's already listed with an agent there. Bummer. I can't let the cat our of the bag on Wait-on-Me, but keep checking the Internet, one of these days their website will be live. 

I leave Peet's and head over to the San Ramon Community Center for the Entrepreneurial Expo. I have to shell out $10 to get into this shindig. I should have found a person in need to give that money to. I won't say it was a complete waste of time, but it was a huge disappoint. I don't know who was in charge of promoting the event, but they should consider another line of work.

In my estimation more than 60% of the people there were vendors or others associated with organizing the event. Tom O'Malley was the keynote speaker, introduced by Paul Byer who you see to the right. Tom talked about economic development of the Tri-Valley area and tried to make the point the the spirit of the entrepreneur is alive and well in the Tri-Valley.

But hey, when people are talking high tech, business development and entrpreneurism to me - i expect data more currrent than 2003. So, there I sat underwhelmed by data and trends from 1997 through 2003. I didn't even get excited when they through in a couple of figures from 2004. (If you check the home page on this site, you will find Market Detail Reports that are updated every Monday, local MLS trends that are updated every Friday, and Real Estate Industry news that is updated everytime we come across something we think would be of interest to buyers, sellers and investors of real estate - we follow over 70 blogs and newsfeeds daily to gather this info.)

Two other points on the presentation: 1) Someone needs to teach people how to use a microphone - if you are going to be speaking publicly, make it a point to be heard. 2) Verbally reciting the information on a powerpoint presentation is boring. 

Leaving the Expo shaking my head, I headed over to the San Ramon Marriott, where Dan Gross had informed me earlier in the day that the California Association of Mortgage Brokers was holding  a big shindig from 1 until 7pm. Well, I got there about 5pm. Just in time to see them breaking everything down. I did run into about half a dozen folks I knew that said it was a great event.

So that's my afternoon. A surprise encounter at Peet's followed by disappointment and let down. So, off I went to 24 Hour Fitness to Dance to the Oldies. All of this happened within a radius of about 1/2 a mile. That's the beauty of the Bishop Ranch area. 

This week's meeting of the Realtors Marketing Association in San Ramon was a regular Anthony Robbins seminar with our room host John from Carpet-Now getting our group of normally sedate real estate agents and affiliates all fired up.

John had people waving their arms, high-fiving, and yelling. I took a couple of pics of him, but they all looked like this one. Thanks to Carpet-Now and our other sponsors: Prudential Mortgage Bankers and HomeGuard for the sponsorship.

This week's new listings included:

• 5811 Cattleya Drive, San Ramon
• 520 Edinburgh Circle, Danville
• 5188 Salvia Drive, Castro Valley
• 5888 Annandale Way, Dublin Ranch
• 215 Veritas Court, San Raon
• 2715 Oak Road #C, Walnut Creek
• 3288 South Bridgepointe Lane, Dublin
• 164 Teracina Drive, San Ramon
• 3035 Crestablanca Drive, Pleaanton
• 4303 Clarinbidge, Dublin Ranch Villa
• 9085 Alcosta Blvd. #351, San Ramon

Today was Susan Ashville's birthday. The dieties of Spring were smiling upon her as she won about half of today's drawings.

The Harper Team can assist you with the purchase of these or any other properties in East Bay. For a , for local MLS stats go here, or for real estate industry news go here.

We received this from The Viers Team @ Diablo Funding Blackhawk this morning and thought we would pass it on. 

If you watch TV, listen to the news on the radio, read newspapers or get the news online, chances are you can easily feel a dark cloud hanging overhead because of the war, murders, global warming and many other negative things the media is so eager to tell us about.  At the forefront of the media hype these days is the doom and gloom of the subprime market and how that is going to devastate the U.S. economy.

According to the media, we should all be afraid that the subprime loan default rates will soar, further weakening the housing market and making it more difficult for financially healthy borrowers to get loans.  And as the housing market goes south, so does the U.S. economy.  But if you listen to the experts, not the media, the picture is not near that dismal.

Barry Habib, CEO of Mortgage Market Guides suggests that we look at the numbers.  About 20% of ALL loans are subprime loans, and of those, only 40% are purchases.  So if you break that down, only 8% of all purchase loans are subprime loans.  In the picture of overall home purchases, that equates to only about 2% of potential homebuyers that won’t be able to obtain a loan because of the tightening of the subprime market.  Yes, that’s probably about 100,000 homes nationwide, but in the scheme of things, it doesn’t pencil out as having as big an impact as the media is playing it to have.  Mathematically an increase in interest rates of a half of a percent (.50%) would have a greater impact on the economy.

So while experts like Habib and Chief Economist Brian Westbury agree that poorly structured loans will result in foreclosures and bankruptcy for some lenders, the impact on the overall U.S. economy should be negligible.  Yes, lenders will tighten their guidelines and modify their programs so that the loans they do make can be sold on the secondary market.  But 100% financing will still be available – for those with somewhat higher credit scores than before.  And those with low credit scores will still be able to get a loan, but full documentation to demonstrate their credit-worthiness will likely be required.

The market is still making a correction, and the lending side is adjusting accordingly, just as it has for decades.  But all is not doom and gloom, and we’ll all feel less of an effect if we don’t subscribe to the sensationalism that sells advertising in the media.

In the contiuing saga of the subprime mortgage market Loan City has closed it's doors.

Here is what you will find on LoanCity’s website: LoanCity is closed for business. Today March 20, 2007 is the last day we will be funding loans. To our customers, our staff and business partners - we thank you.

I called Stephen Bullock at Diablo Funding Blackhawk to ask his opinion on the current state of affairs in the mortgage business:

Stephen feels that there is still quite a bit of over-reaction. This situation was a long time in the making. When housing is going up, a homeowner that finds themselves in a tough financial situation can usually sell their house with a profit. But when the market is flat or going down, then a homeowner has difficulty in bailing out because they can’t afford to even pay their agent. It’s going to get more and more difficult to get a loan with a high loan to value (+9) and low docs. The sub-prime market is drying up and the effect of that is washing into the AltA market.

Stephen’s advice to homeowners that feel that they are headed into a bad situation with their current mortgage should contact a real estate agent and mortgage broker immediately to educate themselves as soon as possible as to what their options are.

Then, I called America's Most Opinionated Mortgage Broker - Brian Brady. Brian explained it all to me in great detail that made total sense. I don't know what the heck he was saying, but I could tell - This Guy Knows His Stuff!

My hastily scratched notes contain these tidbits - four tier lending industry:

• Mortgage Brokers - aren't going out of business unless they can't pay the bill.
• Correspondent Lenders - won't assume underwriting risks. Two levels: Small/Low C.L.'s - never assume credit risk. Large C.L.'s - bulk sells loans to a bunch of investors to take on full credit risk.
• Large Lenders - not going out of business unless they can't sell the product. One will go down as a result of the subprime shakeout or merge.
• Banks are at the top tier

Brian wasn't surprised at the LoanCity news. Loan City was an Alt-A lender, not subprime. They're original business model was all Internet based, but when the housing market heated up they moved into plain old lending and got sloppy.

Brian expects to see Wells Fargo pull out of the subprime market in the next few months. Subprime loans will continue with stricter guidelines and most likely offered through stronger financial institutions. I was amused at Brian's reference to stated income loans as "liars loans." He shared a couple of stories he's heard over the years.

With a $trillion dollars of ARM's getting ready to reset in the next year, I asked Brian what agents and consumers should be aware of. He expects interest rates to decline in the next 12 to 18 months. If you're heading toward trouble with a re-ARMing mortgage - get out now while you can.

Brian's BIG QUESTION: What's going on below the surface over at Country Wide?

Look for a long comment from Brain on this post as he attempts to straighten out my ramblings.

Lastly, I finally connected with Kris and Dennis Viers @ Diablo Funding Blackhawk. The Viers Team repeated much of what has already been mentioned. 100% loans will still be available. Better docs and credit scores will be required. Fannie Mae's move out of stated or subprime loans is causing ripples. In the end, it will be a tighter market.

So where does this leave the consumer (home buyers and sellers) and the local real estate agent. It's going to make it tougher for first-time buyers or people with below average credit scores to purchase homes. Get started sooner than later with credit repair or improvement. Stay abreast of market conditions.

Agents - REMEMBER - you have a fudiciary responsibility to your clients. Just because a lender says he can make it happen, doesn't mean it is in the best interest of the client - and it could wind up in court and come back to bite you if you exert to much influence to make a questionable deal happen.