January News Reports Validate 2010 East Bay Real Estate Forecast
California cities and counties are continuing to feel the pinch of the recession. Sales tax receipts — the 1 percent of state sales taxes that go back to local jurisdictions — were 15 percent lower in the nine Bay Area counties in January compared with January 2009.
DANVILLEÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $242,000 (1/10) Â Â Â $273,800 (1/09)Â Â – 11.61
SAN RAMONÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $388,000 (1/10)Â Â Â $444,400 (1/09)Â Â – 12.69
WALNUT CREEKÂ Â Â $898,800 (1/10)Â Â $1,080,500 (1/09)Â Â – 16.82
Recent news and blog stories seem to support our East Bay Real Estate Forecast for 2010.
The FHA is trying to “better position itself to manage risk while continuing to support the nation’s housing market”.
New changes are effective starting April 5, 2010.
- An increase in Upfront MIP from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent
- A reduction in maximum seller contributions from 6 percent to 3 percent
- A Congressional request to increase monthly mortgage insurance premiums
Figure this one out
No city in California made CNN’s – America’s most overvalued cities, a list of 330 U.S. cities.
And then there’s CNN’s – Most overvalued housing markets – which shows 25 California housing markets as being overvalued by 44% to 75%
Bay Area Housing Market Stats – Dec. ’09
A total of 7,828 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was up 13.8 percent from 6,878 in November, and up 13.6 percent from 6,889 for December 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.The sales figures have climbed now for 16 months in a row.
“A couple of years from now, when looking back, there’s a good chance we’ll refer to the beginning of 2009 as the bottom of the market. But that doesn’t mean we’re anywhere near normal yet. Sales distribution is still lopsided towards lower-cost homes, driven by tax incentives and distress activity. Whole mortgage categories don’t exist for buyers. Putting a deal together is excruciating, like swimming in molasses. We don’t expect much genuine improvement until lending institutions re-open their spigots,†said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
Foreclosures made up 32.3 percent of all resale activity.
FHA loans made up 25.6 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans last month.
Investor Activity – Last month absentee buyers purchased 17.9 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, while buyers who appeared to have paid all cash accounted for 22.7 percent of sales.
|
Sales Volume
|
Median Price
|
|||||
|
Dec-08
|
Dec-09
|
%Chng
|
Dec-08
|
Dec-09
|
%Chng
|
|
| Alameda |
1,492
|
1,552
|
4.0%
|
$338,000
|
$360,000 |
6.5%
|
| Contra Costa |
1,788
|
1,634
|
-8.6%
|
$252,500
|
$287,500
|
13.90%
|
The number of California homes entering the foreclosure process declined again during fourth quarter 2009 amid signs that the worst may be over in hard-hit entry-level markets, while slowly spreading to more expensive neighborhoods
“It’s going to be a long slog for housing,†said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm. “We will see a decline in home prices and there is still a lot of shadow inventory out there that we need to get through.â€
Federal Reserve policy makers today retained a pledge to phase out programs aimed at keeping mortgage rates low, bringing an end to another form of government help. The end of the $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases by the central bank on March 31 raises the risk that borrowing costs will jump.
“Given recent lender behavior, increased staffing in the loss mitigation area of mortgage servicers, and the administration’s recent “push†… to encourage more short sales,†housing economist Thomas Lawler writes, “it is extremely likely that the recent uptrend in short sales relative to foreclosure sales will continue this year.â€
However, default notices are climbing in mid- and high-end neighborhoods, as homeowners who were able to make payments longer than those in entry-level markets feel the results of the recession and job losses, said MDA DataQuick president John Walsh.
Gary Painter, director of research at University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate, said the numbers underscore how homeowners in high-end neighborhoods were able to stave off foreclosure longer than others.
”A lot of the mortgage loans that are in distress are being kept out of the foreclosure process,” said Celia Chen, senior director of Moody’s Economy.com.
And to make matters worse –
California global wine shipments dropped for the first time in 16 years during 2009. Shipments fell 1.6 percent in the first 11 months of the year and consumers are buying less expensive wines.
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