30 Year Interest Rates and Musical Homes

Percentage-trapThe average 30–year fixed rate in June of 2008 was 6.32. Five years ago in 2003 it was at a historic low for the past 35 years – 5.23. Back in October of 1981 30–year fixed rates for mortgages were at 18.45.

So, today we are about 1 point above an historic low that very few American homeowners have ever seen and about 12 points below the wonder years of Jimmy Carter and the Ayatollah Khomeini.

For those with enough long-term memory left, interest rates in the 6% range are considered very attractive indeed. 7.5% to 9.5% are historically the norm.

A half a percent increase in your interest rate in the East Bay real estate market can wipe out a significant price reduction on the sales price of the home.

Real estate professionals who have been in the business in the East Bay for 10 to 30 years seem to be in agreement that the current conditions are providing a window of opportunity for historic deals on East Bay estate.

As we have mentioned before, foreign investor groups are entering the local markets looking to purchase multiple homes in foreclosure or bank owned properties. One agent has an Asian client interested in purchasing up to one hundred homes.

Buy-home-internetWe noted in an earlier post, that positive cash flow opportunities are available for investors and that rents are stable, if not rising. People that are losing their homes are not leaving the area – their jobs are here. They are renting the homes that people just like them are vacating under similar circumstances. It seems to be a case of musical homes in some communities.

Bottom line for buyers is – BUY NOW – lest you find your self down the road needing some cheese with that whine!

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June 6 Mortgage Bloodbath

Where to start?
 
The good news - plenty of people looking for homes to buy and sell. Couldn't be a better time for some!
 
BUT –  Bonds plummet to lows not seen since July of last year. When this happens, prices are primed to get worse in a hurry.
 
Here's what happened - This morning New Zealand's Central Bank (same as our Fed) unexpectedly hiked rates in an effort to cool their strong economic growth and fight inflation. There is talk that Australia may follow in rate hikes.
 
Why does this matter to our Mortgage Bond market? As Nations around the world hike their own rates higher, international investors who are seeking the highest rates of return on their money may increasingly look to invest elsewhere besides the US, and may even pull money from their present US-based holdings.
 
Thoughts of a rate cut are a distant memory. A rate hike is a distinct possibility as soon as Q3. After the dust from today settles, a positively sloped yield curve means 5 yr ARMs should look better than 30 year fixed rates.