Every Friday we update our MLS Trends chart for 5 of the local communities along the I-680 corridor: Danville, Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon and Walnut Creek, CA.
I decided to write about the trends chart because Dublin, CA continues to standout from the other four communities this year.
The two lines of most interest in the graphs are the blue (Active Listings) and the green (Pending Sales). The narrower the gap between the two, the less Days on Market. It's one way to look at how active the market is.
Look at Danville. The active listings low point on the Danville graph represents 1/14/08. If you scan the other four communities, you see this coincides with their low points. This is a normal historical trend. The low point is usually in the first two weeks of January after the holidays.
What we see on the chart for Danville is fairly typical for the Bay Area, active listing inventory begins to climb as pending sales also begin to inch up. BUT, hold the phone! What's happening in Dublin?
Dublin, California sees it's active listings pretty much flat-lining or is a slight decline. And look at the pending sales in Dublin since the beginning of the year. They're taking off much more than than the surrounding communities.
San Ramon is the only community coming close to reflecting the trend in Dublin. What's up with this?
How do you spell - New Home Builders in Difficult Times? San Ramon and Dublin especially have more new home construction than the other communities. The greater percentage of new home construction, the more downward price pressure due to builders slashing prices and offering incentives.
Also, the foreclosure rates are probably higher because more new homes and condos were sold in these areas from 2000 to 2005 - adding to the downward price pressure.
It appears that sellers in Dublin are holding on to their homes more than the other communities.
Last year what we would see is active listings bottoming out in the first two weeks of January and then a steep increase. Pending sales rose a bit into April, then flattened and began to fall through the remainder of 2007 - subprime meltdown mess.
So what do these charts tell us if you are a buyer? San Ramon and Dublin have quickest turnover of property in general. Sellers in Danville, Pleasanton, and Walnut Creek haven't seen as much downward price pressure, so sellers in those communities are probably hanging tougher on prices that may still need to come down a bit given that the number of buyers is not increasing at a rate to cause a significant increase in sales activity.
Buyers can find deals in all of these communities, but you may want to check out Dublin first and San Ramon second if price discount is the major factor. This is probably more significant for first time buyers or condo owners that are considering a move up to a detached single family home.
My prediction is that we are going to see more downward pressure in Dublin and San Ramon as home builders attempt to deal with the effects of rising fuel prices.
Whatever the case, it is Dublin, CA that piques my interest these last few Friday mornings as I begin the process of gathering the MLS data,
It's a great year to buy a home in California. 
Real estate investors and home buyers who aren’t buying San Francisco Bay Area real estate right now, are going to miss the boat. Home owners in the East Bay have seen the worst, but don’t expect price values to start climbing until Spring of 2009.
