Every Friday we update our MLS Trends chart for 5 of the local communities along the I-680 corridor: Danville, Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon and Walnut Creek, CA.

I decided to write about the trends chart because Dublin, CA continues to standout from the other four communities this year.

The two lines of most interest in the graphs are the blue (Active Listings) and the green (Pending Sales). The narrower the gap between the two, the less Days on Market. It's one way to look at how active the market is.

Look at Danville. The active listings low point on the Danville graph represents 1/14/08. If you scan the other four communities, you see this coincides with their low points. This is a normal historical trend. The low point is usually in the first two weeks of January after the holidays.

What we see on the chart for Danville is fairly typical for the Bay Area, active listing inventory begins to climb as pending sales also begin to inch up. BUT, hold the phone! What's happening in Dublin?

Dublin, California sees it's active listings pretty much flat-lining or is a slight decline. And look at the pending sales in Dublin since the beginning of the year. They're taking off much more than than the surrounding communities.

San Ramon is the only community coming close to reflecting the trend in Dublin. What's up with this?

How do you spell - New Home Builders in Difficult Times? San Ramon and Dublin especially have more new home construction than the other communities. The greater percentage of new home construction, the more downward price pressure due to builders slashing prices and offering incentives.

Also, the foreclosure rates are probably higher because more new homes and condos were sold in these areas from 2000 to 2005 - adding to the downward price pressure.

It appears that sellers in Dublin are holding on to their homes more than the other communities.

Last year what we would see is active listings bottoming out in the first two weeks of January and then a steep increase. Pending sales rose a bit into April, then flattened and began to fall through the remainder of 2007 - subprime meltdown mess.

So what do these charts tell us if you are a buyer? San Ramon and Dublin have quickest turnover of property in general. Sellers in Danville, Pleasanton, and Walnut Creek haven't seen as much downward price pressure, so sellers in those communities are probably hanging tougher on prices that may still need to come down a bit given that the number of buyers is not increasing at a rate to cause a significant increase in sales activity.

Buyers can find deals in all of these communities, but you may want to check out Dublin first and San Ramon second if price discount is the major factor. This is probably more significant for first time buyers or condo owners that are considering a move up to a detached single family home.

My prediction is that we are going to see more downward pressure in Dublin and San Ramon as home builders attempt to deal with the effects of rising fuel prices.  

Whatever the case, it is Dublin, CA that piques my interest these last few Friday mornings as I begin the process of gathering the MLS data, 

The good news is Months of Inventory in the twenty-seven communities on average is down almost a full month from 7.30 months the first of March to 6.38 months now, a 14% drop. 

The reasons for the drop are many including more attractive prices, but the market isn’t flooded with inventory. This week’s MLS stats continue to show Dublin and San Ramon as leaders in improving figures.

I just updated this week’s MLS trends for some of the markets we cover.

The charts seem to indicate that San Ramon and Dublin are seeing the most improvement or stability lately. The active listings in Dublin have fallen dramatically in the last few months and the pending sales have bumped up and are holding steady. In San Ramon, the increase in Spring inventory has not been too dramatic and pending sales are climbing sharply.

Looking at the chart, Walnut Creek seems to be the community with the numbers working against it – sharply increasing inventory and flat pending sales. Pleasanton, CA looks to be in about the same situation as Walnut Creek while Danville is in the middle of the pack.

If you’re thinking of buying new home construction in the TriValley area, here is a note of interest from the Associated Press:

For Lennar, the average sales price of homes delivered dropped to $278,000, down from $303,000 in the year-ago period, partly due to higher sales incentives offered to homebuyers. The company averaged $48,000 in incentives per home delivered in the first quarter, compared to $45,500 per home delivered in the first quarter of 2007.

As you may recall, at the end of last summer, homebuilders were trying to  reduce incentives as the market gave a slight hiccup of improvement. That attempt didn’t last long and after the end of a dismal year, the incentives have returned. New home buyers with a down payment and good credit remain in the driver’s seat with negotiating a good deal on a new home.

A real estate agent with experience in new home sales (like Tracey) can be invaluable for buyers looking at new construction. Talk to any former new home sales agent and they will confirm the value. They certainly won’t do this while they are working for a builder because the common misconception on the part of buyers is that cutting out the agent will save them even more money. The reality is totally the opposite with an experienced agent.

Move-up buyers also remain in positions of negotiating power as they did last fall and for the same reasons. The big change here is that sellers are becoming more realistic on pricing and inventory has shrunk so there aren’t as many choices. Interest rates remain historically favorable.

Don’t expect the prices to drop much more. Most agree, that our local housing markets (except for the foreclosure pockets) are stabilizing and that any further price reductions in the overall market may be negated by rising interst rates.

All-in-all it looks like it’s a great time to buy. The sellers have gone through their cycle of suffering. The group now in the batter’s box are real estate agents. The significant decline in transactions means there are not enough to feed all the hungry mouths.

The California Association of Realtors is expecting a significant drop in the number of practicing Realtors this year. Be sure to select an agent that you feel will survive the shakeout.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) 2007 Predictions

• Sales
• Predicted = 6.4 million
• Actual = 5.65 million
• Predicted Growth = -1.2%
• Actual Growth = -12.8%
• Variance = 11.5%
• Volume
• Predicted = $1.7 trillion
• Actual = $1.5 trillion
• Predicted Growth = 0.3%
• Actual Growth = -13.5%
• Variance = 13.8%
• Price
• Predicted = $225,229
• Actual = $218,900
• Predicted Growth = 1.5%
• Actual Growth = -1.4%
• Variance = 2.9%

In 2007 NAR was -

• Too optimistic when they think the market is going down
• Too pessimistic when they think the market is going up

NAR’s 2008 Prediction

• Sales will increase by 0.7% to 5.69 million transactions
• Up from 5.65 million in 2007
• Down from 6.5 million in 2006
• Prices to hold even in 2008
• Unchanged from $218,900 in 2007
• Down from $221,900 in 2006

 These predictions are based on existing homes. Remember 2007:

• Too optimistic when they think the market is going down.
• Too pessimistic when they think the market is going up.

2007 Real Estate 2008

• Part 1
• Part 2
• Part 3
• Part 4
• Part 5
• Part 6

Click Here to Get In-Depth Local Real Estate Market Data - Updated Weekly

Yahoo Foreclosures shows 126 homes in Dublin, CA in the foreclosure process. A quick scan shows over 80% of these to be homewoners that have only received a Notice of Default.

RealtyTrac shows 128 Dublin properties in aution; 234 bank-owned homes; and 339 Dublin homeowners in pre-foreclosure status. That’s over 600 homes in questionable status for Dublin, CA. The RealtyTrac image to the right shows the pre-foreclosures and auctions for one section of Dublin.

Looking at our weekly Market Details Report for Dublin, we see the median home price falling and the Average Days on Market rising. The market action index is showing a cold buyer’s market. The falling inventory is still being influenced by end of year listing agreements expiring and, in fact, homes listed for sale in Dublin ticked up this week on the MLS.

The Market Details Report also breaks data down according to house price point . This may help you to price your home if your price is on the bubble.

Condos represent a large segment of the Dublin housing market. Hacienda Crossings has a lot of unsold condos and more being built. New homes at Dublin Ranch are still being built and the builders are very, very motivated to move inventory to keep their crews working and the cash flowing.

So, the Dublin real estate market looks like it is getting hit from all sides and the picture isn’t pretty except for buyers with cash in pocket and good credit. Home sellers in Dublin need to take a good hard look at pricing. Don’t expect any dramatic changes. Change will be slow in coming, maybe 18 to 36 months in this market – UNLESS – the Dublin Raiders move to town.