We’ve written over and over again about the importance of knowing the local real estate market. There can be significant differences between neighborhoods within the same community. One neighborhood can be experiencing flat sales with appreciation increasing while another neighborhood can see increasing sales and declining values.

Look at this graph reflecting housing appreciation. Parts of the East Bay have been hit very hard – dragging down the rest of the area. But, historically we see that the East Bay supports home value increases.

This graph shows you the last two major corrections in the California housing market. Note how home values remain fairly stable even in a down market.

While the media continues to sensationalize the housing market correction, interest rate increases and the clean-up in the mortgage industry – interest rates remain at historic lows.

The subprime meltdown in the mortgage industry has received wide coverage in all media venues, including the blogosphere. California as a whole is having it’s problems, but many local real estate markets are seeing very little impact from the subprime blues.

In general, the I-680 corridor from Walnut Creek to Pleasanton is experiencing a normal market. Inventories are still in the 2 to 4 month range. The result of all of the various influences on the East Bay housing market have resulted in a “Value Conscious Market.”

Buyers know the deals are out there. They’re looking for resonable sellers who are willing to deal with the realities of a correcting market.

Contra Costa & Alameda MLS

San Ramon - Dublin - Pleasanton, CA

The weekly figures are in for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton California. (blue = Active Listings; green = Pending Sales; purple = ClosedTransactions) No surprises here. The end of the year historically shows a significant drop in active listings as many 6 month listing contracts expire.

The first meeting of the San Ramon Realtors Marketing Association will be on Jan. 11. We expect to hear positive reports from our hundreds of members on activity in local real estate markets.

Feel free to contact us for more stats on real estate trends in San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton. We're happy to give you our interpretation of the data and what other professionals are reporting.

Today's News Items

Rates on 30-year mortgages were unchanged in the first week of the new year after posting three consecutive increases to close out 2006. Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.18 percent this week, the same as last week.

Dan Greene, from the Daily Mortgage Reports,  is a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

• 30% of participants predict rates will increase
• 20% of participants predict rates will decrease
• 50% of participants predict rates will remain unchanged

He is predicting that rates will increase over the next 30 days, but that doesn't mean you should necessarily follow my advice when choosing whether to lock a rate, or float it.  His advice may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

From the Bankrate.com survey:
"Housing is not slowing down and neither is consumer spending. Richmond Fed President Lacker may have been right all along — the Fed may need another rate hike."

Considering a reverse motgage?
Read - Making Your House Pay in Retirement by Jeff D. Opdyke -  The Wall Street Journal Online. A reverse mortgage could help you pay for retirement — or it could cost you and your heirs a lot of money.

There’s a great post by Jonathan Miller over at the Matrix on the stabilizing market = The Electric Kool-aid Seller Test For Buyer Friction

The Harper Team monitors over 50 Real Estate and News Feeds daily to bring you information pertinent to the San Ramon Valley & TriValley real estate market including the communities of Danville, San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton. We welcome suggestions.

Search our blog articles via the Tag Cloud - just click on a word that interests you.

MLS Stats for Pleasanton, Dublin, Pleasanton

The weekly MLS figures for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton CA are in (blue=active listings, green=pending sales, purple=closed sales).

What we see is what we expect. The real estate market for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton is hitting its year-end bottom.

You notice in Dublin pending sales remain stable while they have dipped in Pleasanton and San Ramon. But, in San Ramon, closed sales actually jumped up a bit.

We keep an eye on MLS listings as they expire. In the last couple of days expired listings have fallen off indicating to us that most of the downward movement of Active Listings is complete. We expect to see a rather steep increase by the second week in January as sellers return to the market. 

Our opinion - barring unforeseen circumstances, housing prices in the area are stabilizing and will remain mostly flat for the first half of the year. Sellers entering the market may still have to adjust. Buyers are going to lose the leverage they enjoyed as the market trended down. It will be back to horse trading as usual.

Relevant news items from the end of the week: 

• 30-year fixed-rate loans still remained slightly below where they were a year ago, according to a report today from Freddie Mac.
• "Mortgage rates edged up over the week following news of a jump in consumer spending in November,'' Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a statement. "Financial markets were concerned that stronger spending could keep inflation elevated. These worries were further compounded by the releases of new and existing home sales for the same month, which both exceeded market forecasts and caused Treasury bond yields to continue to rise.''
• The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes rose 0.6 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million units. That followed a 0.5 percent sales increase in October and marked the first back-to-back sales gains since the spring of 2005.
• Nearly 1 million California homeowners and renters can look forward to a significant reduction in their home and renter insurance rates after a decision by Farmers Insurance Group to slash premium fees in 2007.
• The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of an existing home fell 3.5% in October from a year earlier, the largest decline since the group began collecting these data in the late 1960s. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now stands at 6.16%, the lowest level since October 2005, according to HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.J.
• First-time buyers are particularly sensitive to rising housing costs, in part because they don't have equity from an existing home they can tap as prices shoot higher. And lower incomes provide less of a cushion when monthly payments climb. In a sign of just how hard it is for first-time buyers to come up with the cash needed to buy a home, 45% of first-time buyers bought their home with no money down, according to the recent National Association of Realtors survey, up from 43% a year earlier.

The Harper Team monitors over 50 Real Estate and News Feeds daily to bring you information pertinent to the San Ramon Valley & TriValley real estate market including the communities of Danville, San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton. We welcome suggestions. 

Search our blog articles via the Tag Cloud - just click on a word that interests you.

Weekly Figures from Contra Costa & Alameda MLS for San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton

The typical end-of-year housing market trend continues for San Ramon Valley & TriValley real estate. Active Listings on the Contra Costa County & Alemeda MLS for San Ramon, Dublin, and Pleasanton, CA continue to decline while Sales Pending remain stable. (Active Listings=blue; Pending Sales=green, Sales Closed=purple)

Most serious sellers will be waiting until after the Holidays to put their homes back on the MLS.

Buyers will have fewer homes to choose from over the next couple of weeks in San Ramon Dublin and Pleasanton, CA. Buyers that need to get into homes may find themselves in a weaker negotiating position with fewer homes in competition.

We expect this trend will continue in the San Ramon, Dublin, and Pleasanton housing markets for the next couple of weeks until we get through the Holidays and sellers start returning their homes to the MLS.

If you would like a more in-depth analysis of the market condition and trends, please contact us. There is no obligation on your part and we promise not to nag, hassle or otherwise pester you.

The Harper Team monitors over 50 Real Estate and News Feeds daily to bring you information pertinent to the San Ramon Valley & TriValley real estate market including the communities of Danville, San Ramon, Dublin and Pleasanton. We welcome suggestions. 

Search our blog articles via the Tag Cloud - just click on a word that interests you.